Working out the likely effects of global warming is extremely complicated.

Paleoclimatologists have been looking for past earth climates that closely match the expected climate of Earth in 2100.

As ice-sheets melt the weight of then decreases and the earths crust can ‘bounce’ back. This then impacts. Water takes up more volume as it heats up toward 4 degrees C.

The period most like the atmosphere mankind is creating is the Pliocene (5.332 million to 2.588 million years before present). During this period CO2 concentration in the atmosphere was 350-400 parts per million.

remoter parts you can see where the sea level was then – places in South Africa, Australia and US. Paleoclimatologists are find that level between 11 and 33 metres higher than present in other areas 10-88m!

This variation is partly from the earths crust moving over such timescales up and down.

The work is ongoing but what would Southwark look like is sea level rose  ‘only’ by 10m?

We already know that in Southwark all the land north of Camberwell Road is in a flood plain with the odd tiny island dotted around that area if it were to flood. 

It looks like the flood plain is increased south along Rye Lane, stops before Denmark Hill station, at  Nunhead stations. But it passes Peckham Rye station and gets close to Grove Vale

But more significantly a 10m rise in sea levels would see the Thames Barrier being made completely redundant. During the next 20 years planning for its replacement will need to start.